Andy Reid can succeed in Kansas City if he gets back to his original blueprint

There is no precedent for Andy Reid.

It is as futile to predict his chances for success in Kansas City based on prior coaches' records as it was to forecast an eventual Super Bowl in Philadelphia because Bill Cowher took 14 years to win one.

Reid's immediate predecessors failed spectacularly after leaving the Eagles. Buddy Ryan was a disaster in Arizona. Rich Kotite was a debacle with the Jets. Ray Rhodes was a debasticle - so bad we need to create a new word - in his lone year in Green Bay.

You could argue that Reid, like Rhodes, could use a year off to decompress. You could argue that the Chiefs' rush to land Reid is as misguided as the Jets' pouncing on Kotite back in the day. And maybe you'd be right.

But those were Reid's predecessors, not precedents. At his best, Reid was a far better coach than any of them. It is entirely up to him whether he regains his form in Kansas City or continues his mystifying stumble toward oblivion.

It really is breathtaking, when you stop to think about it. Reid is probably the 21st-century Philadelphia sports figure we've devoted the most time and energy trying to analyze and understand. Donovan McNabb was up there. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard belong in the conversation.

But the head coach of the local football team draws more attention and scrutiny than the mayor and City Council combined in this town. That may not be healthy, but it's true, and Reid was in office for an incredibly long time.

And then - just like that - he has a new gig in a new city less than a week after coaching his last game with the Eagles. He was fired on Monday and hired by Friday.

Your gut says Reid faces long odds in Kansas City. It is a franchise that continually grasps at the coattails of other teams' success. After trying to recapture the Patriots' magic with GM Scott Pioli and head coach Romeo Crennel, the Chiefs turned their eye toward the fool's gold standard set in Philadelphia.

Can Reid overcome those odds? It depends which Reid shows up at Arrowhead Stadium in September - the one who won nearly 75 percent of his games from 2000 through 2004 or the one who barely exceeded .500 over the ensuing eight years.

Reid's downturn began almost exactly as his sons began to get into trouble. The world learned of Garrett and Britt and their involvement with drugs when they were arrested in early 2007. But people close to Reid say the family had been coping with their struggles for about two years before that.

It really could be that simple. Reid was among the best coaches in the league. After he had to deal with his sons' drug problems, he was never quite as good.

"He was never the same guy," one close associate of Reid's said last week.

Terrell Owens happened. Jim Johnson's illness happened. McNabb got older. The Giants acquired Eli Manning. There were plenty of contributing factors at work. But the implosion of his family may have been the root cause. Certainly, Reid got caught in a cycle of desperate, doomed decision-making that culminated in a calamitous 2012 season.

The cycles are broken now. The father and his family can move on from the place where they lost a son and brother. The coach can move on from the quicksand pit he created for himself, beginning all over again on solid ground.

If Reid gets back to the original blueprint he used with the Eagles, aided by his years of added experience and insight, he'll be fine. He can hire solid pros for his coaching staff and insist on high-character guys who really love playing football for his roster. He can run the ball a little more. He can relax and share a bit more of his personality with the fans and media.

That Reid can have success.

If he goes in looking to prove that his out-of-the-box, out-of-his-mind approach was right all along, that he really can outsmart the world, Reid won't be in Kansas City long.

It is up to him and him alone. There is no precedent for Andy Reid, except for Andy Reid.

Andy Reid's relationship with Philadelphia was awkward to the end. E6.