Are there enough buyers for Philadelphia's upscale condos?

The riddle of the moment for Philadelphia's developers, economists, real estate brokers who target high-end property buyers, and just the mildly observant is this: How many millionaires will it take to fill all of the glitzy condominiums being built in Center City?

The list of existing, under-construction and planned towers flaunting fancy names and eye-glazing price tags seems endless. There's the Murano, 10 Rittenhouse, Symphony House, Residences at Two Liberty, 1706 Rittenhouse and the Residences at the Ritz Carlton Philadelphia.

The Waldorf-Astoria brand will be affixed to a 58-story hotel/condo building at 1441 Chestnut St., it was announced Wednesday. The cheapest apartments will be $1 million when the building opens in 2012, according to developers Timothy Mahoney and Brook Lenfest.

And all of this is unfolding as the region, the nation and the globe begin to deal with an economic catastrophe that could cause pain for many years.

"We are struggling, no doubt about it," said Kevin Gillen, a Wharton economist and vice president of Econsult, an economic consulting firm based in Center City. "But we're not in dire straits like a Miami or Las Vegas," which added more than 30,000 condo units each.

"Our level of new construction is fairly modest compared to those cities," Gillen said, "so out of 10,000 new units, you'd expect about 3,000 were targeted to millionaires."

Currently, Trend MLS lists 3,484 condos for sale in the region. That is about the same as the 3,565 condos listed for sale one year ago, Gillen said.

"That still represents a very high level of inventory," he said. "Right now, we certainly do appear to have too many condos chasing after too few buyers."

Real estate broker Allan Domb is the so-called "Condo King of Philadelphia." Right now, the king is hurting. His sales are off 25 percent to 40 percent this year compared with last year - mostly with $750,000-plus condos.

"It's been challenging selling the units and closing them," he said candidly. "Many buyers do not go through with their transactions because their situations have changed, and they view the economy as not as strong as two years ago.

"And by the way, they're right."

There is a clear link between the local housing market generally and a slowdown in the purchase of expensive Center City condos:

"A lot of those people buying over $1 million condos have to sell an existing home [usually in the suburbs], and that's a problem for them," Domb said. "They come and look, and say, 'I will get back to you after I sell my home,' and it doesn't happen. You rarely hear from them again."

The Web site of Kurfiss/Sotheby's International Realty shows 348 homes for sale for $1 million or more in Bucks County and another 156 million-dollar residences in Montgomery County. That is a lot of stock to move if some of those homeowners are candidates to buy expensive apartments in Center City.

Gillen said it was difficult to get a handle on the exact number of luxury condo units starting at $500,000 that are out there because a lot of them are not listed in the MLS.

But a tally of seven high-end condo developments currently under construction shows at least 1,150 units coming to market over the next three to four years.

The 1441 Chestnut St. site will add an additional 136 condo units.

There are about 90 units left to be sold at Park Rittenhouse, the Ayer and the Warwick.

So, back to the basic question: Are there enough deep-pocketed buyers to fill out this market?

"Despite short-term difficulties, I would think so," Gillen said. "The number of new upscale condo units is relatively modest compared to the number of affluent households who can afford them."

Carl Dranoff, who developed Symphony House on the Avenue of the Arts, thinks so, too.

"I think after this shakeout over the next year or two, we might be among the most-favored cities in North America for affluent people who want to live downtown," he said.

But Gillen added: "The challenge is that these households tend to be very educated and investment-savvy people. Even though they may have the means to afford these units, they may be reluctant to purchase based upon all the bad news they hear about the economy and housing market."

Dranoff and other developers who began marketing their units in the favorable economic climate of a couple of years ago have fared well.

Dranoff won the bid from the city for Symphony House in 2003. He broke ground in April 2005.

But even then, Dranoff said, his project was viewed with skepticism because he chose an unproven residential location for his luxury tower, where 163 units start at $550,000 and go to $4 million.

About 85 percent of the units have been sold, and construction was completed earlier this year. Dranoff is currently building a $70 million luxury rental property on 777 S. Broad St., near Symphony House.

"Good projects tend to transcend [economic] cycles," Dranoff said yesterday. "You build a great project in a great location and regardless it's good times or bad times, you will likely be successful."

About 62 percent of the 270 units at the Residences at the Ritz Carlton have been committed, said sales director Diane Bryant. The units start at $562,000 and rise to $12 million for a penthouse.

Bryant said besides location, something else was driving sales. The $300 million, 48-story condo tower connected to the famous hotel debuts in early December.

"The brand is giving buyers confidence more than anything else," she said.