Though a sustained recovery is far from assured, Uncle Sam deserves a thank you for what is a "first step" toward better days, said Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics for Moody's Economy.com in West Chester.

Exports were up during the third quarter, but the real force behind the 3.5 percent annual rate increase in GDP were the cars and houses Americans bought with the government's "Cash for Clunkers" car-buying rebates and first-time home buyer tax credits, Faucher said.

No matter, yesterday's estimate from the Commerce Department ended four quarters of negative GDP growth - a recessionary drought never before seen in the United States. The two longest recessions before had lasted nine months.

"By the time we're done," Faucher said, "this is going to be the worst downturn since the Great Depression."

For now, the economy is "absolutely" expanding because of federal spending, he said.

But can the recovery continue without government support? Yes, in Faucher's opinion, but not quite yet. The government will have to keep providing aid a while longer to keep consumer spending up until businesses start hiring back all the nation's dislocated workers - the best pill for consumer confidence.

Economists say the unemployment rate will rise above 10 percent into next year before it starts to drop again. But once labor markets improve, a sustained recovery can take hold.

To keep Americans buying until then, the government would do well to expand unemployment-insurance benefits, provide aid to strapped state governments, and extend the tax credit for home buyers to keep the real estate market improving, Faucher said.

Moody's Economy.com, which said the recession ended in August, considered yesterday's numbers "further confirmation of that," even if many economists say they believe the strong third-quarter GDP will be an aberration.

There remains a risk the nation could fall into another recession, as happened during the economic crisis of the early 1980s. We emerged from a downturn in 1980 only to enter another one in 1981-82.

"That was a very different recession," Faucher said. But one thing is similar: the lousy job market.

Unemployment peaked at 10.8 percent in late 1982; the current rate of 9.8 percent is expected to peak at 10.4 percent next spring, he said.

"We're not in a self-sustaining expansion yet, but this is setting the stage for one," Faucher said. "This is the first step in the process."