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Analysis: Monmouth, Ocean counties key for Christie

In the end, the Shore turned the tide.

Republican Chris Christie racked up gigantic margins in Monmouth and Ocean counties on his way to victory over Gov. Corzine Tuesday, and kept the race closer than usual in urban Democratic strongholds. The results made Christie the first Republican since 1997 to win a statewide race in New Jersey.

Riding a message of change and lower taxes, Christie won the two shore counties by nearly 135,000 votes combined, more than accounting for his roughly 100,000-vote margin statewide.

In a race that most insiders said would come down to who could better stir up their supporters, GOP state chairman Jay Webber said his party had its "best most sophisticated grass roots campaign" ever.

"This was our year," said Webber, a Republican Assemblyman. He said the GOP made 2.3 million phone calls over the course of the campaign, including 500,000 over this past weekend.

The effort helped turn independent voters heavily for Christie, a key to any GOP candidate trying to win in a state where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans.

Even in Gloucester County, where Democrats hold a two to one registration advantage over Republicans, Christie won.

While most voters in New Jersey told pollsters they were focused on state tax and economic issues, Republicans were already casting the Christie win and a GOP victory in Virginia's governor's race as a sign of their party's resurgence.

After all, President Obama had lent his personal prestige to the Corzine campaign, coming to New Jersey three times on his behalf, including two stops last weekend. And Corzine had repeatedly tried to tie himself to the popular president saying his re-election would help Obama's progress in Washington.

"Chris Christie's victory is a clear sign that Republicans can win in any state next year," said Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, vice chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, which backed Christie.

Many of the issues at the center of this race, though -- most prominently New Jersey's chronically high property taxes and Corzine's unpopular standing -- were specific to this state.

Christie had been criticized for providing few specifics about how he would cut income taxes, hike property tax rebates and still balance a dreary state budget. But exit polls showed that his broad message of "change" after eight years of Democratic governors helped put him over the top.

Exit polls showed that 38 percent of voters said the top quality they were looking for was the ability to "bring change," said Monmouth University poll director Patrick Murray."That's how you get change -- by putting in the other party," Murray said while analyzing the race on NJN television.

Among independent voters, 58 percent of whom went for Christie, the top issues were corruption and property taxes.

Both played to Christie's strengths and, to some extent, Corzine's weaknesses. Christie had just come off a run as U.S. Attorney filled with corruption prosecutions and high-profile news coverage in all corners of the state.

And the governor had failed to deliver on some of his biggest promises on property taxes, settling instead for several incremental measures.

Democrats have traditionally rode huge margins in urban areas to statewide wins. But Corzine failed to score sizable enough wins in the Democratic counties that carried him in 2005. In Hudson County, for example, Corzine won by about 47,000 votes, a margin about 24 percent smaller than he scored in his first run for governor. In Essex County Corzine won by about 65,000 votes, a steep drop from the 85,000 vote bulge he earned in 2005.

Republicans began the year hopeful, hungry and focused.

Corzine, already unpopular, faced added trouble as the national recession took a bite out of virtually all incumbents. He was the only governor seeking re-election this year in the wake of the nation's economic turmoil.

Corzine's campaign fought back with sharp attacks and he managed to close on Christie. But Corzine did not improve his own standing among voters, who had rendered a negative verdict on the governor's four years in office. Christie, piled on the governor, but slipped in the polls as he refused to deliver a vision of how he would be better, other to offer bromides about cutting taxes and spending. In short: the public was ready to turn against Corzine, but there were questions about whether Christie had closed the deal.

The results Tuesday showed that he had.

Contact staff writer Jonathan Tamari at 609-989-9016 or jtamari@phillynews.com.

Staff writer Rita Giordano contributed to this report.

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