Jobs to lag locally till late 2013, new study says

It will take the Philadelphia region until the fourth quarter of 2013 - more than 2-1/2 years from now - to return to pre-recession employment levels, according to a report being presented Monday to the nation's mayors who are wrapping up a conference in Baltimore.

The report projects that the region's unemployment rate will fall to 6.7 percent by the end of 2013, after hitting 8.1 percent by the end of this year and 7.5 percent by the end of 2012.

Since the last employment peak in the first quarter of 2008, the Philadelphia area will have lost 135,400 jobs, or 4.8 percent, according to the report from IHS Global Insight, which has an office in Eddystone, Delaware County.

The jobs market for the nation as a whole will not regain its pre-recession vigor until 2014.

"Pressures from rising commodity costs, supply-chain disruptions from Japan's natural disaster, and extreme weather domestically have combined to slow the economy's momentum, and downside risks have become more troubling," according to a report from IHS Global Insight.

The report was presented to government leaders attending the United States Conference for Mayors. Mayor Nutter is a vice president of the organization.

The report makes the point that many metropolitan areas in the United States have stronger economies than many nations in the world. The Philadelphia metropolitan area is the world's 36th largest economy, ahead of Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Greece and Denmark.

With a 2010 gross domestic product of $347.7 billion, the Philadelphia metropolitan area ranks seventh, behind New York; Los Angeles; Chicago; Washington, D.C.; Houston; and Dallas,

However, when it comes to growth, the region, which includes parts of South Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, falls well below other cities. Its gross domestic product grew 4.1 percent over the decade, putting Philadelphia 179th for growth.

Philadelphia and its four surrounding Pennsylvania counties counts for 41.6 percent of Pennsylvania's the gross domestic product, just over double what Pittsburgh provides. The South Jersey portion of the metropolitan area provides 11.7 percent of New Jersey's gross domestic product.

Despite its forecast of a long and slow recovery, the economists remain cautiously optimistic.

"We continue to believe that the current soft patch is not a precursor of a double dip," the report said.