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Derek Jeter (right) has the pure hitting skills and intangibles, but Jimmy Rollins (below) has his own assets that make the leadoff position a standoff.
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Bill Conlin: Comparing Phillies, Yankees lineups the right way

IN A WORLD SERIES comparison, a Tale of the Tape tradition dating to 1903 has matched the combatants by position.

While that gives a picture of relative strengths on an individual basis - third basemen Mike Schmidt and George Brett was a close matchup of 1980 Phillies and Royals stars - it ignores the roles of same-position players in the context of where they hit in the batting order.

Even the heavyweight champion Phillies and Yankees have different rules of engagement as a game unfolds. Let's look at another 1980 matchup of first basemen Pete Rose and Willie Mays Aikens. Rose, the patron saint of win-any-which-way-you-can small ball, was batting No. 2 in '80 at a position normally reserved for a power bat. Aikens, the prototypical cleanup hitter, was more the first-base business model. It was a no-brainer to give Willie a lopsided edge in a matchup with the aging Rose. He outhomered Pete by 20-1 that season, drove in 34 more runs.

Ah, but Aikens' 20 homers and 98 RBI were pedestrian numbers for a cleanup hitter. Rose lashed 185 hits, stroked 42 doubles and scored 95 runs while compiling a .352 OBP. Those are fine numbers for a table-setter whose job description is to get on base - he reached 251 times by hit and walk.

So, the edge clearly belonged to Rose when factoring in his contribution to the Phillies' lineup chemistry.

Here is one man's spin on how the Phillies and Yankees match up - not by position - but by positions in the batting order. (Using DH rules and the most recent starting lineups posted by managers Charlie Manuel and Joe Girardi. I am also assuming Raul Ibanez will DH in New York and Ben Francisco will play left. Most AL managers like to put speed in the No. 9 spot, but Carlos Ruiz runs well and I think Francisco will bat No. 7 behind Ibanez.)

Gentlemen, protect yourselves at all times and let's have a clean, hard fight.

 

Leadoff: Jimmy Rollins

vs. Derek Jeter

 

The Yankees' captain is a first- ballot Hall of Fame lock. Rollins adds to his credentials year-by-year. Both are run scorers and producers. Give Jeter the edge as a pure hitter, Rollins check marks for power from both sides and speed. Jeter's intangibles are off the charts. Rollins revels on the Big Stage.

RINGS: Rollins 1, Jeter 4.

EDGE: Even.

 

No. 2: Shane Victorino

vs. Johnny Damon

 

Victorino was depicted on the front page of the New York Post Tuesday wearing a skirt. You've gotta be pretty good to rate a spot normally reserved for "Headless Body in Topless Bar," Bernie Madoff and Jacko. Damon had a huge year for a table-setter - 107 runs, 24 homers, 82 RBI, .282 BA. Shane's numbers were solid, but his edge is in pitcher disruption - 25 stolen bases and his tremendous speed on base. Both are Red Light players.

RINGS: Victorino 1, Damon 1.

EDGE: Victorino.

 

No 3: Chase Utley

vs. Mark Teixeira

 

The media needs to get used to the idea that even Supermen have slumps. These guys play their roles as engine-room coal stokers superbly most of the time so that whenever one slumps there has to be something "wrong." Both had typically big regular seasons, but Utley had a streak of four straight 100 RBI seasons snapped, although he scored 112 runs and was 23-for-23 in steals. Both have had relatively quiet Octobers. Look for that to change. Teixeira is a Gold Glove first baseman. Chase has made two well-advertised fundamental errors turning DPs. The Phillies run much more at the top of the lineup than the Yankees - they had 79 steals at the top against 44 (30 by Jeter).

RINGS: Utley 1, Teixeira 0.

EDGE: Slim for Teixeira.

 

Cleanup: Ryan Howard

vs. Alex Rodriguez

 

This is the best heavyweight matchup in New York since Ali-Frazier I. Two monster boppers with evil intentions. Howard was the NLCS MVP with a collage of huge extra-base hits. A-Rod has pumped five homers so far. This is his eighth postseason and first World Series.

RINGS: Howard 1, A-Rod 0.

EDGE: Howard.

 

No. 5: Jayson Werth

vs. Jorge Posada

 

Werth is the main reason managers are loath to walk Howard. The 6-5 breakthrough bomber blasted 36 homers and drove in 99 runs. He also plays superb rightfield and can steal a base. The name of his game is clutch. Jorge played in just 111 games, but hit 22 homers and drove in 81 runs. I have a feeling Jorge will do a lot of hitting with A-Rod on first. (Hideki Matsui normally hits here against a righthander.)

RINGS: Werth 1, Posada 3.

EDGE: Werth.

 

No. 6: Raul Ibanez

vs. Hideki Matsui

 

The best power hitter to come out of Japan battled through injuries to have a solid year - 28 homers, 90 RBI. Ibanez was headed for MVP consideration when he suffered a nagging groin injury. He still posted career numbers and this will be one of the tightest lineup matchups. (Posada will hit in this spot against a righthander.)

RINGS: Ibanez 0, Matsui 0.

EDGE: Even.

 

No. 7: Ben Francisco

vs. Robinson Cano

 

Ben brings speed, power and a good glove to the role (and could still wind up batting No. 9) but has been lightly played since coming from Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal. Cano is New York's Utley, a beast of an offensive second baseman with future MVP potential. He's the elephant in the Yankees' room.

RINGS: Francisco 0, Cano 0.

EDGE: Cano.

 

No. 8: Pedro Feliz

vs. Nick Swisher

 

These guys are viewed by many as the weakest links in these powerful lineups. Well, Feliz specialized in hits with runners in scoring position. Where else do you get 82 RBI from the back end of the order (Pedro normally hits No. 7 in the NL)? Where else? Swisher's 29 homers helped drive in 82 runs, as well.

RINGS: Feliz 1, Swisher 0.

EDGE: Swisher.

 

No. 9: Carlos Ruiz

vs. Melky Cabrera

 

Two of baseball's most quietly efficient players (and Chooch could still wind up No. 7), Cabrera can lead off an inning and set the table for Jeter and Damon. Ruiz can pop one in Yankee Stadium Lite.

RINGS: Ruiz 1, Cabrera 0.

EDGE: Even.

 

Lineup scorecard

 

Phillies 3, Yankees 3, Even 3.

Send e-mail to bill1chair@aol.com.

For recent columns, go to

http://go.philly.com/conlin.

 

Comments   
Posted 08:19 AM, 10/28/2009
mick314
Swisher ??? The Chair lost his edge on that one.
Posted 08:37 AM, 10/28/2009
Yanksin4
Good analysis, except for giving Howard the edge over A-Rod. Howard has huge holes in his swing against lefties, and we'll see how he does against CC, Burnett and Marte. A-Rod has no weaknesses and can cover the entire plate with his bat. Huge edge should go to A-Rod.
Posted 08:37 AM, 10/28/2009
Yanksin4
Good analysis, except for giving Howard the edge over A-Rod. Howard has huge holes in his swing against lefties, and we'll see how he does against CC, Burnett and Marte. A-Rod has no weaknesses and can cover the entire plate with his bat. Huge edge should go to A-Rod.
Posted 08:54 AM, 10/28/2009
johnny o
Great, great piece by the best baseball writer in America, in my lifetime anyway. Bravo! Especially enjoyed the synopsis on Jay Worth. "Breakthrough Bomber", "Clutch". I hear you.
Posted 12:07 PM, 10/28/2009
fabfan
Great article, nice spin. Yanksin4 you clearly haven't seen the big guy all year as I do and your man crush on A Roid obscures your analysis. It will be a great series. PHILS IN FIVE
Posted 01:12 PM, 10/28/2009
Stillcrazi
What a Fillets Rah-Rah! Here's all the math you need to know to figure this one out: Regular season stats- Yanks won 10 more games. Yanks scored 95 more runs. Yanks have 9 players with more than 20 HR's Yanks have 3 Gold Glove Infielders... We could go on ,but you probably get it!!!! Yanks Sweep or win in 5!
Posted 01:55 PM, 10/28/2009
cupajoe
Stillcrazi you're out of touch. The Phils took 2 of 3 in YOUR park and only lost the third to a Brad Lidge meltdown. How's that for a little math AND reality mixed together.
Posted 02:08 PM, 10/28/2009
umpy
Hey Wanksin4 You showed all of your baseball knowledge by calling Burnout Burett a lefty. Another moron from The Big Apple.
Posted 02:16 PM, 10/28/2009
mikeyhigs
Stillcrazi. yanks may have scored more regular season runs, but they did it with a DH. And if you wat to pick and choose stats to make your point, The Phils had 5 players with 30+ HR. The Phils have 4 guys with 20+ stolen bases. The Phils have 18 players with World Series experience to the Yanks 8. Oh, and the Phils are the defending World F***ing Champions.
Posted 02:24 PM, 10/28/2009
nuggett
A great article Bill...you stuck to baseball instead of trying to impress us with some roman greco garbage.....Nobody cares about your romance with yourself and your knowledge of history...Just write baseball stuff Billy C
Posted 02:47 PM, 10/28/2009
TBear
Good stuff Mr. Bill,well thought out. But what's your take on the pitching aspect?
Posted 02:57 PM, 10/28/2009
Stringer Bell
I'm a Phillies diehard, but I'm an objective baseball fan first. How can you possibly have Jeter and Rollins as "even" from the leadoff spot? Their job is to get on base, and Jeters' OBP (.404) was over 100 points higher than Rollins'(.296, which is abominable for anyone) this year! Also consider this, postseason walks: Jeter- 9 Rollins- NONE. I'll always love him for the hit against Broxton, but the man doesn't understand how to get on base. The 3 hole should be advantage Utley based on positional value, but you completely neglected that, and A-Rod, as much as I hate him deserves a slight edge where you actually picked Howard outright. The Phillies are going to face left handed starters in as many as 5 games this series, and Howard ranked 2nd to LAST in the majors among all qualifying clean-up hitters in OPS vs. LHP (.654). Aubrey Huff was the worst at .650. He had big hits off Kershaw and Wolf last series, but that's not much of a sample to go on. The correct order (based on your system) should be Jeter, Victorino, Wash, Rodriguez, Werth, Wash, Cano, Swisher, Wash. Again though, positional value and what the player does at their given spot in the order based on where they play in the field (and how well they play it) is a much better barometer of talent than simply going by their spot 1-9. It also would have been interesting to see the matchups when the Phillies are at home, because Ibanez in the 6 spot becomes an advantage with Matsui out of the Yankees' lineup.
Posted 04:48 PM, 10/28/2009
Doubtful
Bill, in your Feliz/Swisher analysis you have Feliz 1 Swisher 0 and you then picked Swisher. Why?
Posted 04:48 PM, 10/28/2009
Doubtful
Bill, in your Feliz/Swisher analysis you have Feliz 1 Swisher 0 and you then picked Swisher. Why?
Posted 05:05 PM, 10/28/2009
stefek23
Here's another stat: Phils won 2 of 3 in Spankee Stadium this year.
Posted 10:56 AM, 10/29/2009
Flowerhorn
The sense of entitlement from Yankees fans makes me sick. Go Phillies!
Posted 11:54 AM, 10/30/2009
Tocman
One thing everyone overlooks re: the crankies scoring more runs. They play their games with a designated hitter instead of a pitcher in the lineup!!! Duh, that's worth a few extra runs per year, right?
Posted 10:24 AM, 11/01/2009
Don w
Best way of comparing teams I have seen Ashburnused toget compared to Mays or Snider. Richie was best lead off hitter in game but theother two were great power hitters batting in the middle of the lineup.
Posted 06:27 PM, 11/01/2009
Mattingly23
Even after three games, I believe that the Phillies are very much in this series. But I have to take issue with some of Conlin's analysis. Stat geeks have been underrating Derek Jeter's contributions for 13 years now, and have been proven wrong time after time. Jimmy Rollins is one of my favorite baseball players period, but to call him even with one of the all-time greats (who is having another career year and career playoffs) is beyond ignorant. Even as a leadoff hitter. The numbers alone are enough to tell you that Jeter is a better player, even without the intangibles. Their performances through the first three WS games end the argument. Johnny Damon has a much higher OPS than Victorino and 24 vs 13 home runs & 86 vs 54 RBI. Call them even if you like, because Victorino stole 36 bases out of the two hole, but Damon held up a lot in front of Teixeira and A-Rod. He also had a higher on base percentage. Summarily awarding Victorino the edge based on very little is one of the reasons some people were seriously suggesting that the Phillies could possibly win in five. I'm a Yankees fan who doesn't want Damon playing left field next year, but he's still an elite hitter. Call Teixeira a "slim" edge if you like over Utley. Teixeira clearly had the better season, so it sounds like wishful thinking to me. Again, I think Utley's a fantastic player, he's just not Teixeira. The Phillies would have had an edge with Howard, if Howard was batting cleanup. Which brings us to Ryan Howard: Why is it lost on folks that Ryan Howard is a 200 hitter against lefties? Conlin doesn't even bother to explain himself when he awards this one to Howard. A-Rod is one of the top ten players all time. Howard is on of the top ten hitters today. A-Rod finished 50 points higher in OPS this year. Howard thus far has seen nothing but lefties and an unconscious Burnett. That's how you neutralize him. You can't do that with ARod. Out of characters. Will finish later.
Posted 06:56 PM, 11/01/2009
Mattingly23
Continuing my earlier post. Jorge Posada had a higher batting avg, slg, and ops than Jayson Werth. Posada is a switch hitter. I will assume that they have both been "clutch" this year (I know that Posada has been). Giving Werth a clear edge here seems silly. Conlin suddenly lists Werth's outfield play among his qualities as a #5 hitter. Hideki Matsui's stats were nearly identical to those of Raul Ibanez. See for yourself. Conlin gives the hometown guy the edge because Ibanez got hurt. Matsui was so hurt this year he could no longer play outfield. This one looks like a pretty clear draw to me, but feel free to give Ibanez a slight edge for those 6 extra homers in 50 extra at bats. That brings us to number #7, where Conlin again mysteriously refers to Ben Francisco's glove in a strict lineup discussion. Pedroia has locked the AL gold glove for the next 10 years, but Robbie Cano's is still excellent. He also batted .320 and hit 25 HR tp Francisco's .278 & 5. Wishful thinking on a Phillies fan's part. Anyone who thinks this one is close is deluding himself. No need to compare Swisher and Ruiz, as Conlin saw reality on this one. Finally,, we're talking 9 hitters here, but Cabrerra is still obviously a better hitter than Ruiz. Calling it even because "Ruiz can pop one in Yankee Stadium Lite" doesn't sound convincing because Melky outhomered Ruiz 13 to 9. Melky batted .274 to Ruiz's .255, and he's a switch hitter. Before this series started, the only real edge I gave the Phillies was an excellent shot at two wins from Cliff Lee. Then they needed to find a way to win two more games. That's obviously still on the table. They've already got one. But the Yankees had it all over Phildelphia in batting. That edge is more pronounced now. If the Phillies win tonight, I give the Yankees the slight edge in seven (factoring in Sabbathia on three days). Otherwise it looks to me like Yankees in six. Not looking to stir anything up. Just how I see it.
Posted 07:23 PM, 11/01/2009
Mattingly23
stefek23, when the Phillies took two of three from the Yanks in May, the pitchers NY used included Chien Ming Wang, Jose Veras and Brett Tomko. Tomko took the loss in a one run game three because Girardi was not willing to use Rivera for more than one inning. Think that'll happen this time in NY? It won't for Tomko, because he was released from the organization. Kevin Cash won't be catching either, because Jorge Posada is healthy. And Somebody other than Ramiro Pena or Angel Berroa should be at third. mikeyhigs: You sound like somebody who is trying to convince himself of something. Philadelphia certainly did NOT have five players who hit 30 HR. It had four, plus another who hit 21. NY had seven players who hit 20 HR, plus Jeter who hit 18.
Posted 01:05 AM, 11/02/2009
PeterW
"Edge: Howard" Hey Conlin....you might want to rethink that one!!!!!!
Posted 03:24 PM, 11/02/2009
HarleyRider
Rollins and Jeter are EVEN? LOL
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