What Election '09 means for Dems
In Virginia and New Jersey, they dropped the Democrats and went with the GOP. In New Jersey, voters said change was the quality that mattered most in the vote for governor, and they picked Chris Christie by a margin of more than 2-1.
In the closely watched special election in New York's 23rd congressional district, independent Douglas Hoffman, who ran as an agent of change, lost narrowly to moderate Democrat Bill Owens.
But it was otherwise a good evening for the GOP. Their candidates won, and they picked up some good talking points - and, boy, do they need them. Voters have a low opinion of the GOP. In a variety of polls, the number of people willing to admit that they belong to the party has been at its lowest level in 25 years.
Washington Republicans are trying to nationalize the gubernatorial elections: Voters were reacting to Obama's policies, they say. That's a stretch. Neither Republican candidate tried to run against Obama.
But all this talk about Obama also obscures a better message: For the GOP, the stronger argument coming out of the 2009 elections is that voters are embracing Republican ideas. The GOP won in a purple state and in a solidly Democratic state.
The Republican candidates killed among independents. In New Jersey and Virginia, they won those voters 2-1. Independents make up their largest share of the electorate since pollsters have been counting them.
In 2006 and 2008, these voters backed congressional Democrats, and in the 2008 presidential race, they went for Obama 51 to 47 percent over John McCain. But they've been souring on Obama, and now more disapprove of his performance than approve.
In Virginia, Obama won 48 percent of independents. Republican Bob McDonnell won 68 percent this time around. In New Jersey, Christie carried independents 58 to 31 percent, which helped him overcome the fact that there are 700,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state.
Winning independents is important because Democrats are trying to paint Republicans as captive to the most extreme wing of the party. Independents, who tend to dislike extremism of any sort, wouldn't be voting for Republicans if that were true.
The evening was not actually a referendum on Obama. Each race had local issues - taxes in New Jersey and transportation in Virginia - and flawed candidates.
By clear majorities, voters in the two states said they weren't basing their decisions on the president. But that doesn't mean it was a good night for Obama.
Voters are very jittery about the economy. In both states, voters listed it as their top priority. Those voters overwhelmingly voted for Republicans. That's not good for Obama or his party going into 2010 - unless the jobs picture turns around.
A Democracy Corps poll sounded a warning on Election Day. In the 60 closest congressional districts, Republicans scored somewhat better than Democrats on the economy, particularly with messages that focused on the deficit.
Here's more bad news for the president and his party in 2010. Democratic turnout wasn't very good. Everyone knew the Obama Democrats of 2008 wouldn't turn out. But the president visited both New Jersey and Virginia at least in part to bring out the Democratic base. The number of young voters and African-American voters, both of whom were such a strong part of Obama's coalition, were down in both contests. In Virginia, African-American turnout was 15 percent, down from 20 percent in 2008. Voters 18-29 made up only 10 percent of the vote, down more than 50 percent from last year.
Turnout matters to the unfinished health-care debate. If Democratic officeholders start to think Obama can't help or protect them next year, they'll feel less compelled to vote with him.
The president can explain that he has more influence over issues in the national conversation that will be part of the 2010 races - and that he wasn't on the ballot anywhere in 2009.
But members of Congress are a nervous bunch. This will make them more so.
John Dickerson is the chief political correspondent for Slate (www.Slate.com). E-mail him



