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What Election '09 means for Dems

President Obama's message of change was so powerful in 2008 that voters held on to it for an extra year.

In Virginia and New Jersey, they dropped the Democrats and went with the GOP. In New Jersey, voters said change was the quality that mattered most in the vote for governor, and they picked Chris Christie by a margin of more than 2-1.

In the closely watched special election in New York's 23rd congressional district, independent Douglas Hoffman, who ran as an agent of change, lost narrowly to moderate Democrat Bill Owens.

But it was otherwise a good evening for the GOP. Their candidates won, and they picked up some good talking points - and, boy, do they need them. Voters have a low opinion of the GOP. In a variety of polls, the number of people willing to admit that they belong to the party has been at its lowest level in 25 years.

Washington Republicans are trying to nationalize the gubernatorial elections: Voters were reacting to Obama's policies, they say. That's a stretch. Neither Republican candidate tried to run against Obama.

But all this talk about Obama also obscures a better message: For the GOP, the stronger argument coming out of the 2009 elections is that voters are embracing Republican ideas. The GOP won in a purple state and in a solidly Democratic state.

The Republican candidates killed among independents. In New Jersey and Virginia, they won those voters 2-1. Independents make up their largest share of the electorate since pollsters have been counting them.

In 2006 and 2008, these voters backed congressional Democrats, and in the 2008 presidential race, they went for Obama 51 to 47 percent over John McCain. But they've been souring on Obama, and now more disapprove of his performance than approve.

In Virginia, Obama won 48 percent of independents. Republican Bob McDonnell won 68 percent this time around. In New Jersey, Christie carried independents 58 to 31 percent, which helped him overcome the fact that there are 700,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Winning independents is important because Democrats are trying to paint Republicans as captive to the most extreme wing of the party. Independents, who tend to dislike extremism of any sort, wouldn't be voting for Republicans if that were true.

The evening was not actually a referendum on Obama. Each race had local issues - taxes in New Jersey and transportation in Virginia - and flawed candidates.

By clear majorities, voters in the two states said they weren't basing their decisions on the president. But that doesn't mean it was a good night for Obama.

Voters are very jittery about the economy. In both states, voters listed it as their top priority. Those voters overwhelmingly voted for Republicans. That's not good for Obama or his party going into 2010 - unless the jobs picture turns around.

A Democracy Corps poll sounded a warning on Election Day. In the 60 closest congressional districts, Republicans scored somewhat better than Democrats on the economy, particularly with messages that focused on the deficit.

Here's more bad news for the president and his party in 2010. Democratic turnout wasn't very good. Everyone knew the Obama Democrats of 2008 wouldn't turn out. But the president visited both New Jersey and Virginia at least in part to bring out the Democratic base. The number of young voters and African-American voters, both of whom were such a strong part of Obama's coalition, were down in both contests. In Virginia, African-American turnout was 15 percent, down from 20 percent in 2008. Voters 18-29 made up only 10 percent of the vote, down more than 50 percent from last year.

Turnout matters to the unfinished health-care debate. If Democratic officeholders start to think Obama can't help or protect them next year, they'll feel less compelled to vote with him.

The president can explain that he has more influence over issues in the national conversation that will be part of the 2010 races - and that he wasn't on the ballot anywhere in 2009.

But members of Congress are a nervous bunch. This will make them more so.

John Dickerson is the chief political correspondent for Slate (www.Slate.com). E-mail him

at slatepolitics@gmail.com.

Comments   
Posted 06:39 AM, 11/05/2009
mike l
If Corzine couldn't get his agenda through a Democratic legislature, does anyone believe Christie will? A poor economy made Corzine a target and Christie took adavantage. In Va. the oppostie party always wins after a presidential election. Hardly any republican mandate, though it will make Dems work to get better candidates. The los in NY should put the mark of death on the frighties of the right. Lost a seat held by the gop for 130 years after importing palin, thompson, beck, etc., plus millions of $$.That Owens won narrowly makes no difference. The ultra-conservatives got their hat handed to thme. Club for Growth again cannot get anyone elected. That should send more of a message to the gop.
Posted 08:25 AM, 11/05/2009
fafafooey
mike l = "WAHHHH!!!"
Posted 08:51 AM, 11/05/2009
Obama Gonna Git You Sucka
mike l - How is the food in your left wing bubble?
Posted 11:34 AM, 11/05/2009
MikeP
I don't believe you can read anything into these election results other than the current economy is bringing greater attention to local issues associated with the economy. Corzine might have won if the economy wasn't so bad. He was not a very good governor in his first term and voters have no patience for that with this economy. They want change now. The VA Democrat candidate and his campaign was pathetic. Also, the Democrat win in NY 23 was a fluke. Republicans shot themselves in the foot. It may never happen again. I don't see any evidence to support the idea that voters are embracing Republican ideas. Christie went with the tried and true Republican tactic of "I'll cut your taxes, eliminate waste and so on." At the national level, that's what they've been saying for decades. However, when they had the White House and Congress from 2000-2006, their actions were the opposite. Yeah, the reduced taxes on the wealthiest but it was bogus. It resulted in huge deficits and the spending was funded by borrowing money from Communist China that will need to be paid back plus interest. It will be paid back with taxes. In effect, it's a tax increase when you add the interest. One factor that I haven't seen much discussion on is what was the impact of not having the Obamma campaign organization in place. The Democrat turnout was really poor - just like it usually is for these off year elections. Would the Obamma campaign organization produced better get out the vote results??? It was certainly credited with great results during the presidential election. I believe that there is widespread support for health care reform with a public option. Both Republicans and Democrats will be in trouble if they don't deliver.
Posted 11:47 AM, 11/05/2009
towman
I hope the GOP realizes that it won on the issues of jobs and taxes not abortion and gun control. If it sticks to that then the party can recover. If it puts up candidateds who runs on the right of someone to be able to buy 25 AK47s a day then they have lost.
Posted 12:07 PM, 11/05/2009
Conan the Barbarian
Mikey, please allow me to help you out here. As you, as well as House Speaker Pelosi, obviously don't understand the ramifications from the recent election results in NY 23rd district. First, you should stop repeating everything you hear from the leftist media because, more often than not, you will be regurgitating factually incorrect information. If you took 30 seconds to research the history of NY district 23, you will quickly learn that, since the end of the Civil War (1865 in case you skipped that History class), Democrats have held the seat for 76 years and Republicans for 54. Furthermore, though Owens did manage to garner 49% of the vote, he did so only after the endorsement from the RHINO Scozzafava had endorsed him and had urged her supporters to support him. The fact that Hoffman, after only 30 days in the race, garnered 45% of the vote should send a clear message that the "frighties" as you call them had quite an effect on this election. It would also be safe to assume that the 6% that actually voted for Scozzafava were likely GOP party line voters whose votes went to her. Since Hoffman was a Conservative Party candidate, he did not recieve them. But, add that to the votes that Hoffman actually recieved and it would be likely that Hoffman would have won 51% to 49% after only 30 days in the race. So the take away for you should be that this seat will merely be kept warm for the next 365 days until the GOP runs a true conservative candidate that Palin, Thompson and many of us (40% of the country identies themselves as conservatives, 20% identify as liberals) could support runs against Owens, especially if he has yea votes on the record for Cap and Tax, Health Care Takeover and other fiscally irresponsible Democrat initiatives.
Posted 10:11 PM, 11/05/2009
drhoagie
Arlen Specter survived election after election having the same designation (R) after his name as the Presidents Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush and George W Bush. Now we get to see if he can survive another re-election having the same designation after his name as Barack Obama (D). That affiliation doesn't seem to be working for others.
Posted 11:45 PM, 11/05/2009
pjsz1261
Conan, kudos on a very sound, well thought out argument that was based on facts, not fantasy. Alas, I fear it will fall on deaf ears. Anyone who looks at the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans and declares the GOP to be dying is clearly not capable of rational thought. A HUGE contributing factor to that low number is the fact that the party was not conservative ENOUGH for the past 9 years, and many real live Republicans have been alienated. A logical person would look at the comparison of liberal, moderate, and conservative. FAR fewer people identify themselves as liberal in this country than either moderate or conservative. Most Americans are against the far left agenda, but the Obama apologists will never admit it.
8 comments
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