Michael Smerconish: Arlen Specter's date with destiny

ARLEN SPECTER has been a Democrat for a year and a day. And while it might be premature to forecast his primary victory over Rep. Joe Sestak, one thing is certain: His party switch dramatically increased the odds that

he'll extend his Senate reign.

"The party has shifted very far to the right," Specter said a year ago. "It was pretty far to the right in 2004. But you take away a couple hundred thousand Republicans, and they want to vote in the Democratic primary . . . they're dissatisfied with the party is a pretty obvious conclusion," .

"So if you do the numbers, and you add to that the stimulus vote, that's where I end up saying the prospects were bleak."

And that was 12 months ago. Given what has occurred since then, "bleak" would seem a bit optimistic.

Specter switched before the tea-party movement gained nationwide prominence. The $787 billion stimulus bill passed (with Specter's support), but the health-care debate had yet to begin.

President Obama's approval rating, according to Rasmussen's daily tab, stood at 56 percent. The fiery town halls were just being scheduled. Sgt. Crowley hadn't arrested professor Gates. Nobody outside of Wrentham, Mass., knew Scott Brown. "Obsessed," starring Beyonce Knowles, was the hottest movie in the country. The Phillies were still world (bleeping) champions.

Over the last 366 days, the world has become a different place. While the Big Mo (as Bush 41 used to call it) has shifted to the GOP, the exodus of moderates from the Republican Party has continued. As the Inquirer reported this week, since 2002 the Pennsylvania GOP has lost 103,000 voters, while the Democrats have added 550,000.

In Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs - a GOP stronghold in the not-so-distant past - there are 127,000 fewer Republicans than there were eight years ago.

Those centrist suburbanites were a big reason Specter survived his first matchup with former Rep. Pat Toomey six years ago. Without them, a Rasmussen survey released on the eve of Specter's switch showed the five-term incumbent trailing Toomey by 21 points in the Republican primary.

Bottom line: Toomey would have defeated Specter had Specter stayed a Republican. The proof of that isn't so much the Rasmussen survey from last year, but current polling data

. . . from Florida.

A year ago, moderate Gov. Charlie Crist was considered a shoe-in to jump from the governor's mansion to the U.S. Capitol. Even as recently as the last week of October, a St. Petersburg Times poll found him leading conservative former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio by more than 20 points.

Today, polls consistently show Rubio with the 20-point advantage. The Real Clear Politics average of the polling conducted over the last six weeks shows Rubio leading by an average of almost 23 percent. Now Crist is thinking of following Specter out the door. Today he'll announce whether he will become an independent.

There's little doubt such a switch would bolster his chances. A recent Quinnipiac poll found him leading a three-way matchup with Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the leading Democratic candidate.

A more open question is whether the Specters and Crists of the political world would be better off remaining in the Republican Party and effecting moderation from within. As one who's long implored the GOP to reopen the tent and appeal more to centrist voters (and recently became so frustrated by its refusal to do so that I myself became an independent), part of me wishes Specter had stuck around.

RINO - Republican in name only - or revered, 30 years in the Senate has won Specter a level of clout and influence practically unrivaled on Capitol Hill. He maintains close ties with President Obama, Gov. Rendell and Sen. Bob Casey.

Over the last year, he's helped convince the feds to deepen the Delaware River shipping channel, and began working with District Attorney Seth Williams to reform the city's court system.

THE MAN gets it done for his constituents, regardless of party affiliation. That drive, willingness and acumen could have been put to use nudging the GOP back toward the center.

In reality, that effort would likely have cost him his seat.

A survivor of Hodgkin's and a half-century in public life, Specter doesn't give up without exhausting every option.

He takes nothing for granted. He lives for a fight like the one confronting him now.

And if he's re-elected on Nov. 2, the key date in Pennsylvania political history will probably have been April 28, 2009.

Listen to Michael Smerconish weekdays 5-9 a.m. on the Big Talker, 1210/AM. Read him Sundays in the Inquirer. Contact him via the Web at www.smerconish.com.