Arlen Specter's next big test

U.S. SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (once R-, now D-Pa.) gave President Obama the best 100-day anniversary present of all when he announced his decision yesterday to switch from Republican to Democrat.

His announcement is also the latest evidence of his former party's precipitous decline not only in Pennsylvania but in the nation as a whole.

The national Republican Party's sole strategy in the past two years has been to block whatever proposals the Democrats put forward, whatever their merit. In the last session, Senate Republicans set a record for filibusters - that is, blocking legislation that had majority support. In the 100 days since Barack Obama was inaugurated, they have prided themselves in their near-unanimous opposition to just about anything the president has proposed. That is, when they aren't calling him a socialist or prostrating themselves before the likes of Rush Limbaugh.

While Specter maintained that he is not an "automatic 60th" vote for "cloture"(breaking a filibuster), his switch means a tectonic shift in his default position. Now, voting with the Democrats, including for cloture, will not require "breaking with his party." When Minnesota's Al Franken finally is seated, it will be much more difficult for Republicans to block votes on judicial nominations, or key parts of Obama's budget.

But in his statement and a briefing yesterday, Specter made it clear that his decision was based largely on his slim chances to win the Republican primary against the ultraconservative Pat Toomey next spring. State and national party leaders were not supporting him and last year's massive shift of Republican voters to the Democratic Party has left the Republican Party even more conservative. The party has changed; Specter's positions haven't.

So we were taken aback at Mayor Nutter's suggestion on MSNBC yesterday that Specter is the all-but-inevitable Democratic nominee for Senate in 2010. (Rep. Josh Shapiro was more explicit, saying that he himself would not run because Specter is "now the incumbent Democrat.") Indeed, Specter's statement referring only to the general election sounded like he also considers the Democratic nomination in the bag.

A deal to force other Democrats out of the race, if one is in the offing, would be a huge disservice to the commonwealth. Specter's success at bringing funding to Pennsylvania shouldn't be enough to guarantee him the nomination, nor should his long experience and advocacy for Philadelphia. He must defend a decidedly mixed record.

Specter cast an important vote when he supported the stimulus bill in February. Still, that vote was contingent on cuts with little rationale, other than that Specter and two other Republican moderates wanted to make them. He also has been an important supporter for reproductive rights, although that didn't prevent him from earmarking millions of dollars for discredited abstinence-only education programs in the state. And while his statement yesterday cited the Republican Party's move to the far right, there is also his solicitous shepherding of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to lifetime tenures on the U.S. Supreme Court to consider.

Critics used to call Arlen Specter a RINO (Republican In Name Only). Rather than clearing the primary field for him, the new Democratic senator from Pennsylvania should be given 12 months to show that he's not just a DINO either. *