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Lack of after-war plan? That has a familiar ring

ISLAMABAD - As Pakistan's army plows ahead with its offensive in South Waziristan, its success is at risk because the government has yet to come up with a plan to run and rebuild the lawless territory so that the Taliban and al Qaeda don't re-emerge.

The Pakistani army launched a ground offensive in the Afghan border region in mid-October, pitting some 30,000 troops against up to 8,000 insurgents in an operation praised by U.S officials.

But the army's battlefield success could be pointless in the long-run, critics say, because lawmakers have yet to present a clear post-conflict plan for the tribal region - a dithering that could give space for the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies to regroup.

"I think they are running out of time," said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a Pakistani political expert.

Pakistan's northwest tribal regions lie outside the normal government structure in the rest of the country.

Power is vested in tribal elders and appointed "political agents." Residents are subject to colonial-era laws whose features include collective punishment.

Many of the tribal leaders are dead or in hiding, brought down by the Pakistani Taliban in their climb to power in recent years. Much of the economy is based on drugs and weapons smuggling. Islamic conservatism is the norm, and education is so limited that the female literacy rate is just 3 percent.

An October report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group warned that unless Pakistan brought South Waziristan and the rest of the tribal belt into the mainstream political system, extremism would continue to spread, despite the offensives.

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