John Baer: Ed's last budget: Don't expect a lot
GOV. ED'S known for offering progressive budgets that go nowhere, that never make the annual deadline and that only pass like kidney stones - slowly and with pain - once his ideas are stripped out by the Legislature.
There was his '08 plan to pay out $400 in "fast cash" to the working poor for gas, heat and food. Never happened.
There was his twice-proposed Jonas Salk Legacy Fund, $1 billion for biomedical research. Died on the table.
And just last year he wanted $500 million for higher-education tuition aid by legalizing video poker. Turned out to be a bad bet.
Government, His Edness strongly believes, should help hurting families, should battle disease and should better school the next generation.
It's just that any progressive Democrat in a nonprogressive, fiscally conservative state with a politically divided Legislature isn't likely to get what he or she believes in, no matter how strongly.
Plus, Ed's spanned the fiscal map, from a budget to slash mass transit, health care and more in his first try in '03 (a gimmick that backfired; Republicans loved it) to pushing for personal-income-tax hikes, which earned him the nickname "Ed Spendell."
Tomorrow he gets his last shot at budget-making when he addresses a joint House-Senate session to offer a new spending plan, his final one as governor. It's under wraps. Even legislative leaders don't get a peek until a morning briefing just before the speech.
But because of the economy and Pennsylvania's partisanship, it's a good bet that it contains no new big or costly ideas, or none that can survive the process.
Approval is due June 30 (ha!) for the start of the July 1 fiscal year. The only possibility that that will happen (after seven straight years of failure) is because the whole House and half the Senate face re-election, and members want y'all to forget their level of ineptitude.
Last year's budget wasn't agreed to until October and wasn't fiscally in place until Rendell signed a bill legalizing table games last month.
So what's Ed say tomorrow?
He's already indicated that he'll try again to tax smokeless tobacco (we're the only state that does not) and cigars (we and Florida do not) and the extraction of natural gas (we're one of only four states that don't).
Beyond that, says Press Secretary Gary Tuma, "He's going to discuss the long-range fiscal health of the commonwealth" - which, in case you haven't heard, isn't all that good.
The latest Revenue Department numbers show the General Fund through January down $374.4 million. Since the original deficit projection for the end of June was $450 million, it looks like a much larger deficit will force further austerity.
In addition, public-pension problems loom - as in, we can't afford what we promised to pay - and requests are likely for increased education funding, a Rendell regular, with the usual argument that we can't afford not to invest in our children, who are, after all, our future.
But there's not much wiggle room. No one wants to raise taxes in an election year, and about 75 percent of budget costs are mandated.
So, unless Ed has something up his sleeve, expect a hold-the-line approach.
Also, does he hug or jab the Legislature? I expect hugs, as in, "we" have our state in better shape than many other states. But I'd like jabs, as in: Give up your $200 million slush fund, think about things other than re-election and start serving constituents at the same level that you've always served yourselves.
But this is Pennsylvania, Land of Low Expectations, where it's deemed the height of progressive public service just to have a budget done on time. That might be about as progressive as Gov. Ed can hope for.
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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