
Stu Bykofsky: Election results, dear voters, are in our Stars and in ourselves
This is an off-year election, locally known as a "committeeman's election." Absent a huge contest - such as for mayor, governor or senator - voters stay in their burrows. Many of those who do vote will be prodded to the polls, sample ballots in hand, by party drovers. That's why Election Day can be scarier than Halloween: More mischief comes out of City Council than any junior-high-school locker room.
In Philly we will elect a controller and district attorney.
One protects our civic pocketbook, the other dispenses justice (you know, like on "Law & Order"), yet most voters are blasé and disconnected.
Only one in five Philadelphia registered voters is expected to turn out - and that's the most optimistic forecast from my Star Chamber.
My what?
Created in 1487 during the reign of Henry VII, the original Star Chamber was a kangaroo court notorious for arbitrary methods and severe punishments.
My Star Chamber will dispense judgments, but since it is not arbitrary and will dole out no punishment, I'll drop the "Chamber" and just call it Stu's Stars - a half-dozen political insiders and analysts, Republican and Democrat, male and female, black and white. To pluck their most honest opinions, I guaranteed them anonymity. As in the 1992 movie "Reservoir Dogs," they don't know each other's identity.
To avoid charges of larceny, I admit the idea for an anonymous panel was used by my friend Tom Ferrick, formerly of the Inquirer. I customize the gimmick by giving color "cover names" to participants, again as in "Reservoir Dogs." (The colors do not reflect anything about the person - not race, gender, political orientation or sexual preference.)
So, how many registered Philadelphians will bother to vote tomorrow? Stu's Stars' estimates top out at "under 25 percent," from Orange, to 13 percent from Black.
The median: 15 percent.
In the key local races, Republican Al Schmidt is challenging incumbent Democrat Alan Butkovitz for controller, and it's Democrat Seth Williams versus Republican Michael Untermeyer for D.A. The Stars are unanimous: Both Democrats will win. (Hard to believe, I know.)
As to "why," there's the massive Democratic registration advantage, around 6-1. Blue says that incumbents such as Butkovitz have a natural advantage, plus: "Philadelphia is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Democratic Party." I have written that myself. Red says that Schmidt didn't have enough money to break through and didn't get enough help from the Republican Party.
For the same reasons, all agree that Williams will thump Untermeyer.
The majority of Stars say that the statewide race for Pennsylvania Supreme Court - Republican Joan Orie Melvin, from Pittsburgh, versus Democrat Jack Panella, from Easton - is thisclose, but most give Melvin the edge, despite Dems' 1.2 million registration advantage statewide.
A lot of them, Black says, are "casual Democratic voters" who signed up to vote for Barack Obama and now are hibernating. Brown says that Melvin is "very well-known out west" and comes from a "tough political family."
Green likes Melvin based on "gender and geography." Being a woman and a Westerner will work for her, and (first-time Supreme Court candidate) Panella won't have huge Democratic numbers coming out of Philadelphia, Green says. Orange thinks that Melvin will win by 3 to 4 points.
A 50-percent Republican turnout would upend all predictions, but Paxil-gobbling Philly Republicans are more depressed than the economy. In the cradle of liberty, Philadelphians' past, and predicted, apathy is appalling.
So much for scolding. How about cajoling?
There's one other person I want to mention, because practically no one knows anything about judicial candidates.
Candidate for Superior Court Anne E. Lazarus, highly rated by the Pennsylvania Bar Association, takes crimes against animals seriously. As a Common Pleas judge, when she got a case of a monster who butchered a kitten with a knife, Lazarus gave him the maximum sentence and ordered mental-health treatment.
Animal lovers owe Lazarus their vote.
E-mail stubyko@phillynews.com or call 215-854-5977. For recent columns:



