John Baer: How pol talk spins the downturn
NAVIGATING pol-speak can require a guide. Allow me. A couple of things just caught my eye: Arlen Specter saying that our economy is more seriously damaged "than is publicly disclosed" and that "we're on the brink of a depression"; and Gov. Rendell's office crowing that the state has "over 100,000 more jobs" since His Edness took office.
NAVIGATING
pol-speak can
require a guide. Allow me.
A couple of things just caught my eye: Arlen Specter saying that our economy is more seriously damaged "than is publicly disclosed" and that "we're on the brink of a depression"; and Gov. Rendell's office crowing that the state has "over 100,000 more jobs" since His Edness took office.
Both these things made me shake my head. Here's why.
Arlen first.
Specter's comments came at a Harrisburg news conference Monday as part of his ongoing efforts to convince fellow Republicans that he shouldn't be drawn and quartered for voting for the Democratic (OK, ever-so-slightly bipartisan) economic-stimulus package.
When I ask if he believes that we're "on the brink" even with the stimulus package in place, he says, yes, that even with it, "We're close to going off the edge."
I'm not sure this sort of talk is confidence- building. I'm pretty sure why it's in his political favor. Last night, I asked him for some elaboration on his claim that the economy is worse than we think.
"That's my view," he says, based on his study of unemployment trends, chats with experts he'd rather not name on the record and global lending practices.
"I think people need to know the seriousness of where we are," says Specter. "I think we could see a 1929 depression . . . sorry to be so gloomy."
My interpretation?
Specter likely faces a tough GOP primary next year due partly to his support of the stimulus plan. He's (a) justifying his vote to Republicans on grounds that maybe he knows stuff the public doesn't, and (b) offering his vote, if the plan works, as a politically selfless act to save us all from another depression.
There's a reason he's in office so long.
He knows how to work it.
As to Rendell's job numbers. They're in an op-ed piece by his press secretary and communications director, Chuck Ardo, that ran in Sunday's Harrisburg Patriot-News and was offered to other newspapers.
It defends Rendell policies and argues that critics attack with more dogma than fact. It says, among other things: "As a result of wise investments in our people and infrastructure, and solid fiscal management, Pennsylvania has over 100,000 more jobs today than when Rendell took office."
This happens to be true. It's also true that the state lost 67,300 jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007, part of 3.6 million jobs lost nationally. But job-growth numbers need serious context.
According to state-by-state job figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2003 through 2008, almost every state has more jobs.
That's the way the economy works.
Almost every year almost every state adds jobs in the aggregate just to keep up with the ever-growing population.
In fact, only five states lost jobs during that period - Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Maine and Rhode Island - meaning, 45 states gained jobs.
Seventeen states added "over 100,000 more" and eight of the 10 largest states, Pennsylvania included, have more jobs today than in 2003.
California (and you know the shape that it's in) has 523,000 more; Florida, 470,000 more; New York, 248,000 more; and Texas, 1.2 million more.
A pol taking credit for job growth over time is like a lifeguard taking credit for a suntan at summer's end.
To get either you just show up.
Kai Filion, of the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based nonpartisan group, calls touting jobs created as "kind of a meaningless argument."
Mark Price, a labor economist with the left-leaning, Harrisburg-based Keystone Research Center, says: "That's basically right. I wish presidents and governors wouldn't do it."
But they do.
And that's OK - so long as folks consult their guides. *
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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