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John Smallwood: A Super lukewarm endorsement for the Eagles
CONTRARY to some opinions, I am not always down on the prospects for an Eagles season.
In fact, there were 4 consecutive years when I predicted the Birds would go to the Super Bowl. Twice I said they would win it.
We all know that didn't exactly work out.
Still, all of my previous Super Bowl prognostications were based in reasoned analysis. Most didn't work out, but each could be logically defended.
So, why am I going on a gut feeling for 2009?
I've looked at this team and nothing screams out to me lock-solid Super Bowl team. I don't have any of the confidence I had about the teams in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005.
So, why do I feel like the Eagles are going to be in Miami on Feb. 7, 2010, for Super Bowl XLIV?
Check out the staff predictions on this page. I predict the Eagles will finish 11-5, win the NFC East, beat Carolina in the NFC Championship Game, and lose to Indianapolis in the Super Bowl.
Come on, I couldn't totally be Mr. Happy - that just wouldn't be me.
Normally, I have a problem with "ifs," and much of the Eagles' potential is based on "ifs." I'm not sure why, but I think most of them are going to work out.
Maybe my best reason for picking the Eagles is that I don't like anybody else in the NFC.
Minnesota, Carolina, New York, every team mentioned as a potential NFC contender has as many, if not more, issues as the Eagles. There is no team that is clearly better than the Eagles, so I guess that has me leaning toward the home side.
There are things to like about this team.
Some will argue that the Eagles and their 9-6-1 record entered the playoffs through the back door last season.
I'll say that by reaching the NFC Championship Game they invalidated my belief that the championship window for Donovan McNabb and head coach Andy Reid had closed.
More importantly, management acted liked an organization that realized it had one more solid shot at the big silver trophy and aggressively made moves in the offseason to bolster that chance.
I wouldn't agree with president Joe Banner that he had assembled the best roster in the NFL, but this team had its best offseason since the Owens/Kearse acquisitions.
On paper, the free-agent signing of right guard Stacy Andrews, the trade for Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters and the shift of incumbent right guard Shawn Andrews to right tackle re-energized an offensive line that had gotten very long in the tooth.
The fact that a series of injuries has prevented the unit from getting much work together could not have been predicted. Things may start off slowly as they develop cohesion, but there is reason to think that once it comes together, the O-line will provide a nice wall of protection for McNabb.
As always, No. 5 is the linchpin to everything. If this is indeed McNabb's last hurrah in Philadelphia, I think he's prepared to go out in a blaze of glory. I think he's in for a Pro Bowl-caliber season.
With the continued maturation of receivers DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant, a healthy Brian Westbrook and the addition of veteran free-agent fullback Leonard Weaver, rookie receiver Jeremy Maclin and rookie running back LeSean McCoy, McNabb has the best overall set of weapons in his decade as quarterback.
If the multitalented Mike Vick has anything left after his 2 years away from football and Reid and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg can indeed figure out how to effectively incorporate him into the attack, this offense could have a fifth dimension.
The biggest question on defense is Sean McDermott taking over as coordinator for the late Jim Johnson. We'll find out fast what kind of student he was.
The season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley hurts, and the fact that rookie Macho Harris has apparently beaten out incumbent Quintin Demps at free safety brings back into play the decision to let Brian Dawkins go to Denver.
But with corners Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown and strong safety Quintin Mikell, the rest of the secondary is solid and has depth.
A strong rotation of players on the defensive line should be able to compensate for some of the issues at linebacker.
This isn't the lights-out Eagles defense of the past, but it eventually should hold its own.
With the AFC West and NFC South making up most of the non-divisional play, the schedule sets up for the Eagles to be able to have some success while working out early-season bumps and then make a run at home field for the playoffs.
I don't have the degree of certainty that I've had in the past when I've picked the Eagles. Still, I feel like this team is going to the Super Bowl.
Send e-mail to smallwj@phillynews.com.
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