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Cliff Lee lasted seven innings after manager Charlie Manuel decided to start him on normal rest.
RON CORTES / Staff photographer
Cliff Lee lasted seven innings after manager Charlie Manuel decided to start him on normal rest.
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Who has managed their pitching staff better: Joe Girardi or Charlie Manuel?
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Rich Hofmann: Rest is history for pitching strategy

SOMETIMES YOU get the 3 days' rest and sometimes the 3 days' rest gets you, or something like that.

This World Series has come down to two managers, Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel, two men and two fundamental decisions they have made about how to use their pitching staffs. The contrast is rarely this stark and now there is no turning back.

Girardi has gambled on stressing his best arms. Manuel has calmly counted on the depth of his staff. Girardi has sent out CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett on short rest and now seen Burnett blow up on him, giving the Phillies their opening. Manuel resisted the temptation to force the issue with Cliff Lee in Game 4 and was rewarded with resuscitation by Lee in Game 5, in what turned out to be a wild, 8-6 victory.

Now Andy Pettitte will likely pitch for the Yankees in Game 6 on short rest. Now Pedro Martinez will pitch for the Phillies on regular rest.

And the Phillies can see daylight.

Manuel has been second-guessed, exhaustively. Forget that almost nobody wanted to deal with the predicate: that if Lee pitched Game 4 on short rest instead of Joe Blanton, Blanton still would have had to pitch Game 5. The only question was the order.

Manuel made this unspoken calculation: that the risk of starting Lee on short rest for the first time in his career was greater than the risk that his team would be irreparably demoralized if it fell behind in the series by three games to one. It was absolutely the right call. To do anything else would have been to panic.

Yet the second-guessing resounded.

"That doesn't bother me," Manuel said. "Like I said, I've seen it both ways. I've seen it work, and I've seen it not work . . .

"If we would have pitched Lee [in Game 4] and he would have won, we'd still need to win today's game. I mean, that's kind of the way I look at it. And who's to say that if Lee pitches tonight and we win, who's to say - he might pitch again."

And after watching Lee give the Phillies seven reasonable innings (five runs), and watching Burnett completely go ka-boom, failing to get an out in the third inning before departing, Manuel's words just hang there:

I've seen it work and I've seen it not work . . .

After the Yankees won Game 4 and took their 3-1 series lead, Girardi did have a decision. With his hard-earned cushion, the question was if he would insert lightly used starter Chad Gaudin into the Game 5 slot, moving Burnett back to Game 6.

"We talked about it a little bit," Girardi said, before the game. "The interesting thing is Chad hasn't thrown much in the last month, and that's a difficult spot to put him in. With CC only throwing about 100 pitches, we feel good about that. A.J. feels good, and we feel good about A.J. going out there. So we feel that this is the right move, and that's why we did it."

But it blew up on him. It is the downside of 3 days' rest, the inherent uncertainty of the situation, the fact that guys do it so infrequently anymore that you just cannot know. Yet Girardi, assuming he goes with Pettitte tomorrow, has banked everything on this inherent uncertainty.

Asked about Burnett, and his ineffectiveness, Girardi said it had nothing to do with the 3 days' rest.

"I don't think there was any correlation," he said. "He just lacked command tonight."

Girardi also said: "Well, if we would have pitched today, we probably would have won. That's the bottom line. A.J. struggled today. He felt good, he just struggled today. That's something that happens in the game of baseball."

Clearly, the guy knows his team. The strategy was exhaustively discussed internally, and it is in place. The goal was to get Sabathia out there three times in seven games, and they would deal with the rest. And here we are.

Girardi says he wants to check with Pettitte at today's workout to see how he feels, but you get the sense it is mostly a formality.

"If Andy feels physically good, he's going to go Wednesday," Girardi said.

Which only makes sense. There really is no way to undo this. They have chosen their strategies, both managers have, and now we get to see who was right. And who was wrong.

Send e-mail to

hofmanr@phillynews.com,

or read his blog, The Idle Rich, at

http://go.philly.com/theidlerich.

For recent columns go to

http://go.philly.com/hofmann.

Comments   
Posted 07:04 AM, 11/03/2009
EL Zorro
It was the right call by both managers, IMO. Sabathia and Burnett had done it before and had success. Lee hasn't done it yet and, like Charlie said, the WS is no place to find out. At the end it comes down to the players performing.
Posted 07:14 AM, 11/03/2009
stockman1
Good for you Rich. Perhaps you should have a sit down with your DN sports department co-worker Sam Donellon. What a weasel piece yesterday with 20/20 hindsight about how Manuel should have started Lee in game 4. If Sam writes that piece the day before the game, he has big b#**s. Writing it the day after means he has rasins. Thanks again for demonstrating your professionalism and patience in seeing how some of this played out. As I said yesterday on these blogs, this is going 7 games. How Hamels pitches in game 7 will determine the outcome.
Posted 07:33 AM, 11/03/2009
monsieurms
Right call for Sabathia, but not for Burnett and definitely not for Lee. Lee looked tired last night even on normal rest--not unusual considering how he looked at the end of the season and how many innings he has thrown. He looks at his best these days with extra rest not less. He had no life on his fastball. Lost in the conversations---Blanton may've pitched a better game than Lee overall.
Posted 07:35 AM, 11/03/2009
SeanHB
I had posted the idea yesterday that by not putting pitchers on 3-day rest, Charlie put himself in the best position to win at least one of the two games and get the Series back to the Bronx. Depending on the odds you assigned to each of the 4 possible matchups in 4 and 5, it also gave them the best chance to win both and the best chance not to lose both. The split was the most likely outcome. Also, it's clear from the endgame last night that what the Phillies need out of their starters are INNINGS, not domination. So we've closed out The Bank on a good note, and avoided the embarrassment of getting creamed. Now what? Going forward, we can't make too much out of strategy yet; let's not forget that AJ was the weakest link in the Yankees rotation. Petit at home in a money game is going to be tough to beat, short rest or not. One thing for sure, I'd rather put out Pedro on full rest than the alternative, which would have been Cole on short rest. Considering that overall, the Yankees 3 pitching better now than the Phillies 4, I'd say that Charlie is doing a decent job of managing the starters.
Posted 07:48 AM, 11/03/2009
gluteman
Never mind that Charlie lost it in Game 4 by brining in Lidge and then letting him implode. Who cares about that when we won a 5th game down 3-1. Unreal.
Posted 08:03 AM, 11/03/2009
kjuggs77
Can you guys please insert another video advertisement? Geez, I can't even get through an article without changing pages because of your intrusive ads...
Posted 08:05 AM, 11/03/2009
kingsolomonsmind
Charlie is a good manager. He knows the game. He's taken the Phillies to two consecutive World Series. We need to support him. Go Phillies!
Posted 08:16 AM, 11/03/2009
SeanHB
Not that I really think that going down 3-1 was part of Charlie's strategy, going back to the Bronx down 3-2 had to be something to plan for. There was more than a decent chance of being in the same place if the Phillies had gone on short rest, but we'd be going back to NY with a staff much less capable of putting in the inning necessary to minimize using the bullpen.
Posted 08:23 AM, 11/03/2009
cschulz
STOP THE VIDEO ADS!!!!! They are incredibly intrusive and the fact that there is no way to turn them off is obnoxious.
Posted 08:27 AM, 11/03/2009
raoool
geez, what a stark contrast. wow. such mind bending debate material. ooo. the baseball strategy coverage. too bad the baseball writers here don't know enough about baseball to notice anything other than the number of days between starts. lemme guess... the article's short because you had a deadline and your one hand was busy holding up fingers so you could keep a count? yawn. and count me among those who head off to other sites for news when your d___ ads start without providing an option to mute or stop them from playing
Posted 08:36 AM, 11/03/2009
aNutterInDgutter
gluteman, your name fits
Posted 08:42 AM, 11/03/2009
djw26
It's simple, Burnett wasn't getting calls that he got in game 2. Lee proved that it would have been a mistake to start him on short rest as he wore down in the later innings last night.
Posted 08:49 AM, 11/03/2009
Seed
Good article. Facts are on Charlie's side; Girardi is going by his gutt feel and it would have failed him twice if Lidge did not blow game 4. It's on Pedro now; but he needs some run support for a change. Phillies have generated runs in last 3 games, the bats should not go silent this time.
Posted 08:50 AM, 11/03/2009
bm2626
Someone said both managers were right and I agree. If I'm the Yankees, I pitch my best guy to seal the deal. Killer instinct is what makes good teams great, it just didn't work for them (thankfully). Charlie, already knowing Hamels is probably out of the rotation, and figures we'll score runs against CC (as we had the last two times we faced him) plays the safe odds with Lee and figures if we win Game 4 (which, barring the Damon double-steal debacle we likely would have), we have all of the momentum with our best pitcher on deck to try to go up 3-2, if we don't (which we didn't), we have our best pitcher in the first elimination game, which we did. Now, our rotation is better positioned for the next 2 games and the reality is the most important game is Game 6, because if the Phils win Game 6 (and I'd rather have Pedro on regular rest than Pettite on short rest), Game 7 isn't an elimination game for just the Phils anymore. If (and its a big if) the Phils get to Game 7, they have everyone other than Pedro available. Of course, its looking like Happ will start a Game 7 (with Lee, Hamels and Blanton available early), but that exposes the only problem with Charlie's philosophy (which is not his fault): the disappearance of Hamels, who should have been our Game 7 starter. Charlie can only put his guys in the best position to win, which he did. Sadly, Hamels has let Charlie and his team down terribly.
Posted 08:57 AM, 11/03/2009
OBLawyer
Seed: I agree that Charlie was right as to the pitching matchups. The real problem was game 3 because Pettite was good but not great and the crowd was into it, but Hamels let it all slip away after throwing that dumb curveball instead of sticking with his strengths. I hope he has learned from this experience. The BP also failed to shut down the Yankees in that Game. My feeling always was if the Phillies won Game 3 and Game 5, they would win the Series in 6 or 7. Credit goes to the Yankees as they also do not give up.
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