As enrollments slip, some Bucks school districts grapple with 'baby bust'

A fresh debate over closing one or two elementary schools in the sprawling Council Rock School District in central Bucks County is the latest sign that some corners of the Philadelphia region are in the midst of a 21st century "baby bust."

After putting the issue on the shelf for a few years, Council Rock administrators say they now have no choice but to come to terms with a steadily declining enrollment -- driven, experts say, by an aging population, lack of economic mobility, and a development slowdown triggered by the 2008 recession.

"We've seen this trend, really, around most places in Bucks County. People are just getting older, their kids are getting older, and they're not moving," said Michael Roedig, senior community planner with the Bucks County Planning Commission. Developers in the county, he also noted, have been building fewer of the types of homes that attract families with young children.

Elsewhere in the region, though, some school systems -- even more established ones closer to the city -- are reporting significant increases. They include Upper Merion, where the King of Prussia retail and office hub has spurred development; two new elementary schools are being built to alleviate overcrowding. The Lower Merion district, where two supersize high schools opened within the last eight years,  is projecting its 8,400-student population to grow by 900 by 2020-21, largely because of an apartment and condo building boom in the affluent township.

Pennsylvania's older population has steadily increased until the state now has the fifth-highest percentage of senior citizens in the nation. Meanwhile, its public school enrollment dropped more than 5.4 percent from 2006 through 2016, according to state data.

The impact has become impossible to ignore in Council Rock, where enrollment peaked in 2006-07 with 12,596 students and has since declined to 11,034, a drop of more than 12 percent. This month, the school board created a committee to study the closure of either Wrightstown or Rolling Hills Elementary Schools, or possibly both.

Demographics experts note that Bucks has seen factories such as the massive Fairless Works steel plant close over the last generation, and large senior complexes like the 100-acre Ann's Choice in Warminster increase. Within the region, Bucks also had the largest jump in Republican votes in the November election because of  President Trump's appeal to older and blue-collar voters.

Three years ago, Council Rock backed away from an initial debate over whether to close any elementaries. Officials acknowledge that acting now risks displeasing some parents who will lose a convenient neighborhood school.

"Everybody has seen it coming for a long time," said Edward F. Tate III, president of the Council Rock school board. He said the work of the new committee also will involve a wider redistricting to better align the elementary schools with the 2018 closure of Richboro Middle School, the opening of a new Newtown Middle School, and a renovation of Holland Middle School. The committee will hold five meetings over the coming school year, with the first on Feb. 8.

Fraser said he plans to try to limit closure to just one elementary school. He said he believed that shuttering two buildings would require adding one or two modular classrooms in a couple of the remaining schools.

Yet even after a decade of disappearing students, some Bucks superintendents still seem wary about acknowledging the larger trends.

"I wouldn't say 'declining,' [but] down from the peak of where we once were," said John Kopicki, superintendent in Central Bucks, where enrollment has dropped from 20,436 in 2009-10 to the current 18,390. There are no plans, he said, for closures or significant cutbacks.

The Neshaminy district closed three elementary schools in recent years and replaced them with a larger one to deal with declining enrollment, which left a surplus of aging school buildings. However, Superintendent Joe Jones cited statistics showing a slight uptick in students, attributed to the recent addition of all-day kindergarten.

Even in Bucks, the demographic trends are not universal. In Quakertown, in the northern reaches of the county, exurban development -- including plans for two new medical centers -- has district officials pondering the impact of growth. William Harner, the Quakertown superintendent, said a brief drop in enrollment after the 2008 recession is quickly reversing.

"Our kindergarten is now up over 100 students, so if you look at the economy five, six years ago -- that's where things started turning around," Harner said, adding that "ours is a positive growth story."